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The Deputy President Proposal That Stirred Debate
When Oburu Oginga hinted that the Orange Democratic Movement could enter a pre-election pact with William Ruto, provided the Deputy President position goes to ODM — specifically Nyanza — it immediately triggered internal and public debate.
On its face, it sounds like political bargaining. But the confusion began when mixed signals followed. One day, reassurance is given that ODM is not targeting Kithure Kindiki’s seat. The next, the Deputy President slot is framed as central to negotiations.
In politics, inconsistency weakens leverage.
Does Oburu Command the Numbers?
ODM’s historical strength has always rested on one pillar: the mass following of Raila Odinga. Raila’s ability to mobilise voters made ODM a serious bargaining force.
Today, that equation is less certain.
Within the party, figures like Edwin Sifuna have built visible grassroots momentum, particularly among younger and urban voters. The “Linda Mwananchi” message projects firmness and resistance — not compromise.
If energy on the ground is shifting toward a more confrontational wing, then Oburu’s negotiating power becomes questionable. Political deals only work when you control the base that delivers votes. If that base is fragmented, your bargaining chip weakens.
The Ruto Factor
It is also difficult to imagine Ruto sidelining Kindiki, a long-time ally and trusted associate, without overwhelming strategic benefit. Mount Kenya remains central to his electoral arithmetic. Sacrificing that support to attract Nyanza — whose voting patterns have historically been consolidated behind ODM — would be a high-risk move.
Ruto calculates numbers carefully. Without clear evidence that ODM can decisively tilt 2027, such a concession appears unlikely.
The Generational Question
A quieter debate is unfolding within ODM itself: why hasn’t leadership visibly transitioned to a younger generation?
Does Oburu have the national following that Raila commanded? Can he rally crowds in the same way? Or is the party hesitating to fully empower younger leaders like Sifuna or Babu Owino, who resonate more strongly with today’s political climate?
Renewal is inevitable in politics. The longer a party delays generational transition, the harder that shift becomes.
Where Does ODM Stand?
ODM now faces a simple but urgent decision: is it negotiating from strength or from nostalgia?
If it seeks government through negotiation, it must show it still commands decisive numbers. If it chooses opposition, it must project unity and clarity.
Right now, mixed messaging creates doubt.
As 2027 nears, ODM’s challenge is not just about securing a Deputy President slot. It is about proving it still understands the ground beneath its feet.
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