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When Raila Odinga landed back in Kenya after his failed bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, it wasn’t just a homecoming — it was the resurgence of a political titan whose career has been marked by relentless ambition, strategic missteps, and extraordinary resilience. But with the continental throne slipping from his grasp, all eyes now turn to Nairobi. The question is simple: what’s Raila's next move?
Why Did Raila Odinga Fail at the AUC?
Despite heavy lobbying by President William Ruto’s administration and diplomatic maneuvers from Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Raila’s bid collapsed spectacularly. The election, held on February 15, 2025, saw Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf clinch the chairmanship after seven grueling rounds of voting, securing 33 out of 55 votes (African Union Secretariat, 2025).
Key reasons for Raila’s loss:
Regional Politics: East Africa’s internal divisions cost Raila essential bloc support. Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda reportedly withheld unified backing, prioritizing their own diplomatic interests (East African Review, 2025).
Perception of Age and Tenure: At 80 years old, Raila was viewed by some AU member states as a relic of past struggles in a region yearning for fresh leadership.
Domestic Political Baggage: Raila’s polarizing role in Kenyan politics made many states wary of entrusting him with a continental mandate.
A History of Political Near-Misses
Raila’s political career is a paradox of mass appeal and electoral heartbreak. Since the 1997 elections, he has been on the presidential ballot five times, losing every single attempt — most recently in 2022, where official results gave William Ruto 50.49% of the vote against Raila's 48.85% (IEBC, 2022).
Yet Raila’s impact on Kenya is undeniable. From his fight against single-party rule in the 1980s to his coining of "Third Liberation" narratives, Raila has anchored himself as the people's champion. However, his Achilles’ heel has always been elite alliances that collapse at the last mile and an enduring narrative of stolen victories that never translate into legal triumphs.
Why Does Raila Keep Failing?
Political analysts often cite a combination of factors behind Raila’s repeated defeats:
Mistrust from Power Brokers: Raila's reputation as a disruptor of the status quo makes him a risky ally within Kenya's oligarchic circles.
Strategic Miscalculations: Overreliance on political dynasties and underestimation of emerging grassroots movements has cost him votes.
Ethnic Math Fatigue: Kenya’s shifting demographics mean old formulas of ethnic bloc politics no longer guarantee victory.
Age Factor: Kenya's median age is 19.6 years (KNBS, 2023), making Raila’s brand feel outdated to the youth bulge.
Raila's Take on Generation Z Deaths
In July 2023, anti-government protests led by the "Gen Z Movement" turned deadly. At least 37 young people were killed nationwide as they demonstrated against the rising cost of living, unemployment (hovering at 12.7% in 2023 per World Bank), and perceived government oppression.
Raila, though initially supportive of the protests, faced backlash for not physically joining the masses in the streets. However, upon returning from the AUC race, he paid tribute to the fallen youth, calling them "martyrs of the economic struggle" and demanded a public inquiry into the deaths.
Yet critics argue that Raila has often ridden waves of youth activism without delivering structural reforms once inside government coalitions.
Will Raila Rock Ruto’s Government?
Absolutely — and the tremors are already felt. Political insiders report that Raila is gearing up for a mass mobilization drive under the banner of defending democracy, claiming Ruto’s regime has failed on:
Economic stability (inflation reached 8.9% in 2024).
Public debt, now at a staggering KSh 11.2 trillion (Central Bank of Kenya, 2025).
Youth unemployment, which remains stubbornly high.
By reviving the Azimio la Umoja movement, Raila aims to pressure Ruto into policy shifts or risk national paralysis through sustained protests. Already, murmurs of street demonstrations are circulating, especially as food and fuel prices soar.
Is Raila Running in 2027?
The answer? Don’t count him out.
Despite previous claims of retirement and the AUC bid being his "last dance," Raila thrives in political chaos. If Ruto's government stumbles — and if opposition unity can be restored — Raila may well be on the ballot for a sixth presidential run in 2027.
And why not? His base in Nyanza remains solid. The coast leans Azimio. Nairobi's urban youth, especially those mourning fallen Gen Z comrades, still chant his name.
But this time, Raila may tweak his strategy:
Empowering younger lieutenants like Babu Owino and Opiyo Wandayi.
Strengthening regional alliances, particularly with Tanzania and South Africa.
Modernizing his messaging to appeal to Kenya's digital-first generation.
Conclusion: The Comeback King or the Final Curtain?
Raila Odinga's political story has always been one of resurrection. Just when the obituary writers sharpen their pens, he stages a revival. The loss at the AUC was a setback, but perhaps not his last act.
Kenya should brace itself. Whether Raila leads from the front, backs a successor, or simply disrupts from the sidelines, one thing is certain: Raila is back, and he's not done yet.
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